Midterms 2026 · the count v the market · read-only
Polymarket reads raw totals. The A1 count model reads the order of the count. Eight Senate races, both lines live every sixty seconds, scored in public on a grid fixed before the first vote.
What the desk answers
Votes counted, the running margin, and the count-order corrected margin with its band, per race, with the hour the count turns honest.
Polymarket and Kalshi mids against the model's fair value and 90% band, net of the taker fee, with depth within two cents.
A running Brier score, model versus market, per race and overall, written to an append-only log nobody can edit after the fact.